The stock market has experienced a challenging week, and it might also be facing a difficult year in 2025.
The market is on track for its worst week since March 2023 after the Federal Reserve projected a cautious outlook regarding interest rate reductions in 2025. However, examining the market's internal dynamics, it is apparent that damage was inflicted well before the Fed's meeting on Wednesday—and this is a historic indicator of challenging times ahead.
The number of declining stocks in the S&P 500 surpassed advancing stocks for 14 consecutive days as of Thursday.
The advancing/declining data helps to assess underlying participation in market movements, and the recent weakness indicates that even though the S&P 500 is only down 4% from its record high, damage exists beneath the surface of the benchmark index.
This is demonstrated by the equal-weighted S&P 500 index being down 7% from its record high.
According to Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at NDR, the S&P 500's 14-day losing streak in its advance-decline line is the worst since October 15, 1978.
Clissold noted that 10-day losing streaks or longer in advancing stocks relative to declining stocks can signal ominous prospects for future stock market returns.
Although this situation has only been triggered six times since 1972, it demonstrates lackluster forward returns for the S&P 500. The index has shown an average six-month forward return of 0.1% following these 10-day breadth losing streaks, compared to the typical 4.5% average gain observed during all periods.
"Studies with only six cases hardly constitute a strategy. But market tops have to originate somewhere, and many commence with breadth divergences, or widely followed averages posting gains with minimal stock participation," Clissold said.
Perhaps more indicative for the stock market is whether it can stage a recovery as it approaches one of the most bullish seasonal periods of the year: the Santa Claus trading window.
If it cannot, that would be telling, as per Clissold.
"A failure to see a Santa Claus Rally would be worrisome not only from a seasonal standpoint, but it would permit breadth divergences to intensify," the strategist mentioned.
Additionally concerning to Clissold is investor sentiment, which has exhibited signs of extreme optimism since September. According to the research firm's internal crowd sentiment measure, it is in the seventh-longest stretch in the zone of excessive optimism, based on data since 1995.
"Several surveys have reached potentially unsustainable levels," Clissold advised, cautioning that any sentiment reversal could serve as a warning signal for future market returns.
Ultimately, sustained stock market weakness, particularly in the internals, would lead Clissold to suggest that 2025 might not be as easy as 2024 for investors.
"If the stock market cannot address recent breadth divergences in the coming weeks, it would indicate our concerns about a more challenging 2025 could become a reality," the strategist concluded.
